Bitcoin’s historic run into six figures has hit a serious speed bump. After peaking just below $126,000 in early October, BTC price has spent the past two months grinding lower, erasing over a trillion dollars in crypto market value and unnerving even seasoned bulls.
As of this week, Bitcoin trades just under the $90,000 mark, hovering around the mid-to-high $89K region and extending a correction that has already wiped out more than 30% from the all-time high. The big question for this Bitcoin weekly forecast is simple: is this just a consolidation pause before the next leg higher, or a sign that the cycle peak may already be behind us?
Traders were hoping for a classic Santa rally in Bitcoin, a seasonal burst of upside typically seen in late November and December. Instead, the market has delivered heightened volatility, heavy ETF outflows, cautious on-chain signals and a macro backdrop filled with rate-cut speculation, geopolitical noise and risk-off sentiment.
In this in-depth Bitcoin price prediction for the current week, we will walk through the recent drop below $90K, explore the macro and on-chain drivers, study key technical levels, and outline realistic bullish, neutral and bearish scenarios. The goal is not to call an exact number, but to give you a structured roadmap so you can navigate the coming days with more confidence.
This Bitcoin weekly forecast is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully.
BTC slipping under $90K: what just happened?
The drop back below $90K did not come out of nowhere. Over the last two months, the market has digested a combination of over-leveraged positioning, macro uncertainty and profit-taking after a euphoric run to new highs. The turning point was the sharp “10/10” crash, when aggressive political headlines and tariff threats sparked a wave of panic across risk assets, particularly in highly leveraged crypto derivatives.
From there, Bitcoin price began a structural correction. Spot BTC slid from just under $126K to the low $80Ks at the worst point of the sell-off, with several analysts flagging the $80,000–$85,000 zone as a crucial support band for the rest of Q4 2025.
More recently, price has been oscillating between roughly $86K and $95K, with some research desks describing this as a “high-volatility range” driven by mixed flows in spot Bitcoin ETFs and reduced liquidity heading into year-end. In that context, the slide back under $90K BTC this week looks less like a fresh collapse and more like a continuation of that choppy range.
For traders, the key takeaway in this Bitcoin weekly forecast is that the market is still digesting earlier excesses. The absence of a clean bounce from the $90K region signals buyers are cautious, but the failure to break decisively below the low $80Ks so far suggests long-term holders are still stepping in on deep dips.
Macro backdrop: rate cuts, risk sentiment and crypto
No Bitcoin weekly forecast is complete without looking at the macro environment. The end of 2025 is dominated by three big themes: inflation, interest rates and global risk appetite.
Recent data suggests US inflation continues to cool, with markets pricing a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Lower rates are typically positive for risk assets, including Bitcoin, because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and can weaken the dollar.
However, macro is rarely that simple. Equity indices remain sensitive to earnings surprises, tech sector volatility and geopolitical risks. The large October drawdown in crypto was amplified by heavy use of leveraged products such as perpetual futures, which liquidated en masse when volatility spiked. That structural fragility means even modest macro shocks can trigger outsized moves in BTC price.
In practical terms, this week’s Bitcoin weekly forecast must assume that macro is a double-edged sword. Dovish central-bank rhetoric and a softer dollar could support a rebound, but any surprise in inflation or growth data could revive risk-off conditions and pressure BTC back toward recent lows.
On-chain and ETF flows: what the data is saying
Beyond macro, blockchain and ETF data give valuable insight into the underlying health of the Bitcoin market.
Recent on-chain analysis suggests three important dynamics:
First, short-term holders have already absorbed significant losses, with billions in realized loss recorded as late buyers capitulated. Historically, such capitulation from recent buyers has often marked or preceded local bottoms, as weak hands exit and supply transfers to stronger, more patient holders.
Second, many long-term holders and large whales continue to distribute coins gradually into rallies rather than accumulate aggressively. Research from several analytics firms points to persistent selling from long-term wallets and whales sending coins to exchanges, a pattern that keeps Bitcoin price vulnerable to further downside tests if demand remains soft.
Third, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have shifted from strongly positive earlier in the year to flat or negative in recent weeks. Multiple outlooks for December highlight ETF outflows and weak demand as major headwinds, especially while the broader crypto sentiment remains fragile.
Together, these signals suggest that the current Bitcoin weekly forecast should lean cautious. Short-term exhaustion and capitulation are constructive, but until long-term holders return to accumulation and ETF flows stabilize, any recovery is likely to be uneven and prone to pullbacks.
Technical analysis: key levels in focus this week
While fundamentals and flows provide the big picture, traders still rely on technical levels to time entries and exits. Several widely followed research desks have highlighted a handful of important zones that frame this Bitcoin weekly forecast.
Immediate support and resistance
On the downside, the $80,000–$85,000 area has emerged as a critical support band. Multiple analyses mention this zone as the likely area for a deeper retest if BTC cannot hold above the mid-$80Ks in the weeks ahead.
For this specific week, however, the more immediate support sits closer to the upper $80Ks, with some models projecting a gradual drift toward the $90K region over the coming month. KIf price decisively loses the $88K–$89K area, the path opens toward a revisit of the recent $82K–$83K lows.
On the upside, short-term resistance is clustered around $93K–$97K, an area that several technical analysts describe as a “transition zone” where sentiment could flip from defensive to optimistic if reclaimed. For this Bitcoin weekly forecast, closing the week back above $93K would already be a small psychological victory for bulls after slipping under $90K.
Indicators and momentum signals
Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD on higher time frames have been grinding out of “overbought” territory since October, which is consistent with a post-peak cooling phase rather than an early-cycle breakout. Some weekly models still register a bearish or neutral bias for BTC over the next seven days, projecting slightly lower prices around or just below $93K by next week and near $90K into early January.
Chart-pattern analysis also shows that Bitcoin recently broke below the lower band of a bear-flag formation, pointing to the possibility of an extended corrective move that could, in extreme scenarios, reach the mid-$60Ks over a longer horizon. That does not mean such a drop is inevitable this week, but it reinforces the idea that rallies are likely to meet selling pressure until evidence of renewed accumulation appears.
In short, the technical outlook for this Bitcoin weekly forecast is cautious: immediate support is fragile, resistance overhead is heavy, and momentum is still in a cooling phase.
Where is the Santa rally? Seasonality vs. reality
Historically, Bitcoin has often enjoyed strong performance in Q4, helped by improving liquidity, year-end portfolio rebalancing and the narrative of a “Santa rally” in risk assets. Many seasonal models highlight November and December as relatively favorable months for BTC, especially in post-halving years.
This year, however, the seasonal script has flipped. November delivered a drop of more than 17%, breaking the usual pattern of strength and triggering doubts about whether the Santa rally in Bitcoin will show up at all.
Why December often favors Bitcoin
Seasonal strength in Bitcoin is usually linked to three forces. First, after summer and early Q4 volatility, markets often enter a period of relative calm, allowing risk assets such as BTC to grind higher as traders reposition for the new year. Second, in bull cycles, institutional participants sometimes add exposure into year-end to capture momentum or rebalance allocations. Third, narratives around “new ATHs before year-end” frequently attract retail interest, amplifying upside moves.
In the current cycle, much of that seasonal optimism was priced in early when Bitcoin broke into six figures and spot ETFs attracted massive inflows. By the time we reached October, the market had already front-loaded a large part of the usual late-year euphoria.
Why this December is different
This time, several bearish factors are overshadowing any seasonal tailwinds. The crypto market downturn following the October crash, combined with ongoing ETF outflows and high macro uncertainty, has created a much more cautious environment than in prior years.
Instead of chasing upside, many funds are managing risk, trimming positions and waiting for clearer signals from both central banks and on-chain data. Even optimists who still see paths to $200K–$250K by late 2025 accept that the road there now looks bumpier, with deeper interim corrections more likely.
The result is a December where Bitcoin price prediction models are skewed toward consolidation or gradual downside rather than explosive gains. In other words, for this Bitcoin weekly forecast, no reliable Santa rally is visible on the horizon yet.
Scenario analysis: what could happen this week?
Given the mix of macro, on-chain and technical factors, it helps to frame this Bitcoin weekly forecast around three broad scenarios. None of them is guaranteed, but they capture the most realistic paths price action could take in the coming days.
Bullish rebound scenario
In the bullish case, BTC price finds solid support just under $90K and quickly reclaims that level, aided by a softer dollar, improving risk sentiment and a slowdown in ETF outflows. Under this scenario, Bitcoin could push back into the $93K–$97K region, where many analysts locate the first major resistance cluster.
A strong daily close above that zone would not instantly restore the uptrend, but it would signal that buyers remain willing to defend higher lows and that the worst of the post-October liquidation might be behind us. For short-term traders, a move like this would likely shift the tone of this Bitcoin weekly forecast from “damage control” to “cautious optimism.”
Sideways consolidation scenario
The neutral scenario is perhaps the most likely. Here, Bitcoin price continues to trade in a wide band between roughly $86K and $93K, with intraday spikes on economic headlines but no clear break in either direction. This kind of rangebound action fits the data showing mixed ETF flows, muted on-chain accumulation and uncertain macro catalysts.
In such a week, volatility remains elevated, but there is no decisive trend. Scalpers and range traders may find opportunities, while longer-term investors simply wait for a clearer signal. For them, this Bitcoin weekly forecast becomes a reminder to be patient rather than a call to action.
Bearish breakdown scenario
The bearish scenario would see BTC lose the upper-$80K support convincingly, perhaps triggered by a negative macro surprise, a major crypto-specific news shock or an acceleration in ETF redemptions. If the $88K–$89K area is broken on strong volume, price could revisit the $82K–$85K support band identified by several short-term predictions.
If that zone holds, the market could still be in a broad consolidation phase. But if $80K gives way in the coming weeks, the longer-term bear-flag targets in the $60Ks might gradually come into play, especially if on-chain data shows renewed distribution by long-term holders.
For now, this Bitcoin weekly forecast leans slightly toward the consolidation scenario, with a modest risk of a downside test of recent lows and only a smaller probability of a clean, sustained breakout higher.
Trading and investing considerations for this week
For active traders, the slip under $90K is both a warning and an opportunity. The warning is obvious: volatility remains high, and the trend is not clearly bullish in the very short term. The opportunity lies in understanding that ranges like this can offer favorable risk-reward setups if managed carefully.
Swing traders following this Bitcoin weekly forecast might treat the mid-$80Ks as a potential demand area, while respecting the possibility of deeper wicks. Meanwhile, any approach toward the $93K–$97K band could serve as a decision point: either a rejection that confirms the range, or a breakout that hints at a more sustained recovery.
Longer-term investors, by contrast, may view the current environment as part of a larger Bitcoin cycle. Many institutional and high-profile analysts remain very bullish on BTC’s end-2025 and 2030 prospects, with estimates for future prices ranging from conservative five-figure targets to extremely aggressive six-figure or even seven-figure scenarios.
However, even the most optimistic research acknowledges that the path there will likely include several sharp corrections, failed rallies and periods of sideways chop—exactly the kind of environment we see in this Bitcoin weekly forecast.
Regardless of time frame, risk management remains critical. Allocations should reflect personal conviction, time horizon and the ability to withstand volatility. Using clear invalidation levels, avoiding excessive leverage and keeping a long-term perspective can help traders and investors navigate weeks like this one.
Beyond this week: bigger picture for Bitcoin
Looking beyond the current weekly candle, the broader Bitcoin outlook still hinges on three pillars.
First, structural supply dynamics remain favorable. The 2024 halving has reduced new supply, and as long as miner capitulation is limited and operational, forced selling remains contained, BTC retains a strong long-term scarcity story.
Second, institutional infrastructure is stronger than in prior cycles. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, regulated custodians and clearer legal frameworks in major jurisdictions have made it easier than ever for large pools of capital to gain BTC exposure. Even when flows are temporarily negative, the existence of these pipes sets the stage for future demand when sentiment improves.
Third, macro trends such as potential rate-cut cycles, concerns over fiat debasement and geopolitical fragmentation continue to underpin the narrative of Bitcoin as a digital macro asset or “global reserve alternative.” These themes do not play out over a single week, but they shape the trajectory of multi-year Bitcoin price predictions.
In that context, the lack of a Santa rally and the slip under $90K, while disappointing in the short run, are not fatal blows to the long-term story. For the purposes of this Bitcoin weekly forecast, they are signals that the market needs more time to reset leverage, rebuild confidence and attract fresh inflows.
Conclusion
Bringing it all together, this Bitcoin weekly forecast paints a picture of a market in transition rather than collapse.
Bitcoin has slipped back under $90K amid a cocktail of macro uncertainty, ETF outflows, on-chain distribution and fading seasonal tailwinds. The classic Santa rally is nowhere to be seen, replaced instead by choppy, rangebound trading and elevated volatility.
Key support remains clustered between the mid-$80Ks and $80K, while resistance looms around $93K–$97K. On-chain data shows short-term holder capitulation but not yet full-fledged long-term accumulation, and technical models lean neutral to slightly bearish for the coming week.
For traders and investors, the message is clear. This is a time for patience, disciplined risk management and realistic expectations. The long-term Bitcoin narrative remains intact, but the short-term path is messy. Until ETF flows stabilize, whales stop distributing and price can reclaim key resistance levels, calling for a sustained rally would be premature.
In short, there is no convincing Santa rally in sight—for now. But in the world of Bitcoin price, sentiment can shift faster than many expect. Staying informed, flexible and grounded in data is the best way to navigate the days ahead.
FAQs
Q. Why did Bitcoin fall back under $90K this week?
Bitcoin’s drop below $90K is largely a continuation of the correction that began after the October peak near $126K. The move has been driven by a combination of over-leveraged positioning, political and macro shocks.
Q. Is the Santa rally in Bitcoin completely cancelled?
Seasonally, December often favors Bitcoin, but seasonality is only one piece of the puzzle. This year, the market had already priced in a lot of optimism when BTC broke into six figures and spot ETFs attracted heavy inflows.
Q. What key levels should traders watch in the short term?
In the context of this Bitcoin weekly forecast, traders are focusing on support in the $80K–$85K zone and resistance in the $93K–$97K region.
Q. Are on-chain indicators signaling a bottom for BTC?
On-chain signals are mixed. Short-term holders have realized large losses, which is often associated with bottoming phases. At the same time, many long-term holders and whales are still distributing coins or sending them to exchanges, and ETF.
Q. What is the long-term outlook for Bitcoin beyond this week?
Long-term Bitcoin price predictions remain broadly optimistic despite the recent correction. Reduced supply after the 2024 halving, growing institutional access through spot ETFs.
See more;Bitcoin Crashes Under $90K as Death Cross Creates ‘Extreme Fear’ Sentiment
